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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."